Dr. Buford P. Foonis, eminent professor of Geology, has predicted that an earthquake will occur along the central portion of the Cascadia Subduction Zone within the next 7 to 10 days. Dr. Foonis indicates that the quake will occur in the vicinity of Gold Beach, Oregon, with a magnitude of 8.8 to 9.2 on the Richter scale. Since this easily qualifies as a major event, widespread damage can be anticipated. Local agencies are meeting in Grants Pass to determine what, if anything, can and/or should be done to protect the citizens and property of our area. Participants at the meeting include:
Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries: The geology department will be one of the best local sources for information on the reality of the earthquake. While the State Geologist may not be able to predict the exact consequences of the quake, he or she should be able to shed some light on the reality of what a 9.0 quake means with regard to ground motion and so forth, as well as some general ideas about what may happen if it hits.
His Honor the Mayor, and his staff: Possibly the first question to be asked is "Do we tell the people?" What if Dr. Foonis is wrong? Do we risk a panic when it may turn out to be for nothing? What if we decide not to tell, and Dr. Foonis right? Who is liable for the lawsuits which will surely follow? This is an extremely delicate moral, political, and legal question, and there may be no right answer. In any event, Hizzoner is more than a bit nervous, and is taking the situation very seriously (and so is his legal council and the manager of his re-election campaign).
Josephine County Building Department: Which structures can be expected to survive, and which will probably fail. Is there anything that can be done now to strengthen some of the weaker buildings? What if buildings which were constructed to "code" fail during or after the quake? Is the county liable? If so, whose head will roll?
Grants Pass School District #7: What about the schools? Some are old and may be structurally inadequate to withstand the quake. Do we evacuate? What does the mayor say? What if he decides to withhold the warning? Should we make up some bogus excuse and close the schools anyway? These are our kids, and the possibility of having a vast number of them injured or killed...
Emergency Medical Services (Three Rivers Medical Center): No matter what happens, the medical community will be busy. If the mayor announces the prediction, there may be panic (and injuries), and if the quake does hit there is certain to be injury and loss of life on a massive scale. How about disruption of supplies, and the overall ability of emergency medical personnel to move about Grants Pass in vehicles after the quake? How does this affect where we station medical personnel and supplies before the quake? At the hospital, or?
Law Enforcement (city, county, and state): Looting, panic, mayhem, social unrest, and all that stuff - the cops will have their hands full, and more. But remember... they are human, too, and will be affected by the event just like the rest of us. What if some of the police officers do not survive the earthquake? What if some of those who do survive decide to take care of their own emergencies, and fail to come in to work after the quake? Where does this leave the city?
The Fire Department: Can we expect fires after the quake? If so, will we have enough water to fight them (as well as intact water mains to deliver the water to where it is needed). What about the general social disruption which will surely follow - should the firemen be issued sidearms for protection? As with the police, what if some don't survive, or fail to report to work?
City of Grants Pass: Road, Water, and Sewer Departments: Good access will be important, especially for medical and emergency services vehicles. Will there be any roads left? How about the bridges over the river? Will they survive the quake? How about the floods if (when) Lost Creek dam fails? No one can survive for very long without water. What can be done to maintain water to homes, businesses, and fire hydrants (possibly most important). Will the water even be drinkable, or will it be contaminated. How about the sewers? It could be a real mess if they are blocked (especially when the sewer rats get hungry and come to the surface looking for food).
The electric, gas, and telephone companies: Will we still have electric and gas service after the quake? Assuming that the utilities are affected, what can be done to reestablish them quickly. What about the phones? How will communication links be maintained after the quake hits.
The insurance companies: Okay - it's a problem. So who's gonna pay. Sounds like an insurance nightmare to me! And even if they're willing, will they have the funds? How about those without insurance? Are they USCW/OAP or will they find a kind-hearted (and rich) benefactor?. Will the feds need to bail us all out (and will THEY have the funds)?
Department of Health and Human Services: What can individual homes and neighborhoods do to prepare for the quake? If the mayor withholds the warning, is there anything the Agency can do to quietly set-up emergency aid facilities? What about the bodies of the dead? Decomposing bodies will turn into a very serious health risk in a very short time. What about blocked roads? What about contaminated water? What about emergency food and water for the homeless? What about... What about... What about... The potential problems are endless.
Put some quality time into this. The possibility of this happening is real... only the timing is uncertain. You may want to contact your agency and get their response. Many of them may have already planned for this scenario and will be able to help you with your planning. If they haven't, maybe you can help them. Good luck, and let's come up with a viable plan for all our sakes.